Asheville, NC has been called a "climate haven" making the devastation from Hurricane Helene even more unexpected.

Hurricane Helene battered communities across six states last weekend, centering on Western North Carolina. The Appalachian cultural mecca, Asheville, NC, was particularly hard-hit, suffering catastrophic flooding that killed dozens of residents, swept away homes, and destroyed businesses.

The shocking damage challenged the popular perception of Asheville as a “climate haven.” The city was often listed alongside places like Duluth, MN, and Burlington, VT, as one of the safest from dangerous weather like coastal flooding and extreme heat.

Now many are wondering whether the tragic reality check might impact Asheville’s future appeal. The idea that its inland, mountain location shielded it from environmental peril (along with its vibrant arts scene, acclaimed restaurants, and picturesque alpine landscape) was a draw for scores of transplants in recent years.

But the storm calls into question whether any location can really be considered safe from catastrophic climate events.

False sense of security

Much of Asheville's identity as a climate haven was cultivated by the local real estate industry looking to attract climate risk-conscious migrants.

But anyone who viewed the city as a paradise sheltered from the extreme elements likely underestimated the risks. Though tropical storms typically pummel coastal terrain the hardest, mountainous regions like Asheville are prone to unpredictable flooding from heavy rain.

• Helene isn’t the first storm to bring sweeping devastation to Asheville: A hurricane in 1916 caused deadly floods and decimated infrastructure in the area.

• More than 18% of homes in Buncombe County, which includes Asheville, were at risk of flooding, according to climate risk modeling nonprofit First Street Foundation.

A warming planet has made the abrupt formation of intense hurricanes more likely and might also help them retain strength as they move inland, according to climate scientists. That means that the conventional wisdom about where natural disasters can occur might no longer apply. Researchers also say that the federal government’s flood risk maps vastly underestimate the chances of flooding in many areas, which might explain why few homeowners in Western North Carolina had insurance against it.

Saf er , but not safe

Jesse Keenan, a climate adaptation researcher at Tulane University, claims that the term “climate haven” is a misnomer, since even places that are safer than others are not immune to climate risks. He told the New York Times that Asheville will need to adapt to climate change, though those efforts will still be cheaper than in a sinking coastal city like Miami.

Keenan doesn’t expect the flooding in Asheville to undermine its status as a “receiving city” for people moving away from more vulnerable areas. Paradoxically, he says that destructive extreme weather events like Helene can actually accelerate development, as wealthier people tend to move in to build more resilient homes in place of the ones that were destroyed. Research shows that New Orleans neighborhoods impacted by Hurricane Katrina were more likely to be gentrified in subsequent years than those that were spared by the storm.

Chasing climate havens

Climate considerations are important for those thinking about a move: A recent Redfin survey showed that 62% of people are reluctant to relocate to places with climate risks. But in most places, extreme weather events still probably aren’t top of mind, taking a backseat to factors like day-to-day weather, amenities, and cost of living.

Sunbelt counties with heightened risks of coastal flooding and wildfires, for instance, are among the fastest-growing locales in the US, according to a New York Times analysis. But this could change as extreme climate events become more frequent, pushing flood and fire insurers to end coverage for homes in high-risk areas.

Still… true climate havens may be determined less by geographic location and more by the existence of resilient infrastructure to protect against extreme weather. Research shows that projects like wetlands restoration and dam improvement can reduce flooding risk. According to Time, experts say that planned communities that incorporate storm water drainage systems and fire-resilient vegetation into their designs tend to fare the best during floods and wildfires. —SK

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